Spain is the country in the world where internal fragmentation is perceived most strongly, according to a major survey on future risks and challenges carried out by the AXA Group and Ipsos in fifteen countries. The study, based on responses from 23,000 people and 3,000 experts, reveals that 58% of Spaniards believe society is divided into groups with divergent interests—far above the global average of 39%.
The survey was presented exclusively on the Castellana Campus of Universidad Camilo José Cela during an event organised by Foro Periodismo 2030 and the AXA Foundation. It notes that this fragmentation is attributed mainly to deepening political and ideological divides. Josep Alfonso, Director General of the AXA Foundation, added that “tensions arising from immigration, cultural integration and widening social inequalities intensify this perception.” Despite this, Spain stands out among European countries for its positive view of immigration: 47% of national experts and 40% of the general population believe that encouraging migration would help mitigate demographic ageing.
The event, held as part of UCJC’s 25th anniversary celebrations, focused on global challenges shaping the future. Among them is the growing sense of instability: according to the study, citizens increasingly feel they are living through successive crises, resulting in “very weak” trust in public authorities’ ability to protect them from emerging risks.
Concerns about a possible “polycrisis”—the simultaneous convergence of multiple threats—have increased compared to 2024. Climate change continues to top the risk rankings, as it has since 2018 except during the pandemic, followed by security threats, terrorism, cybersecurity, social unrest, geopolitical instability and risks associated with artificial intelligence and big data. Spain is also the only European country whose population still places pandemics among its priority threats.
The study further shows that technological progress is generating less and less optimism among citizens. Experts warn that these challenges are emerging rapidly and that global risks are increasingly interconnected: 77% of specialists believe transversal, holistic solutions are needed, compared with 57% of the general public. In Spain, these figures rise to 83% and 58%, respectively.
Demographic concerns are also among the most pressing. Both experts and the general population believe that, within the next decade, Spain could face the collapse of its public pension system (a view held by 92% of Spanish experts and 79% of the population), rising healthcare costs and increasing social isolation among older people. Respondents also identified language, diet, traditions and cultural values as factors of cohesion, while politics and religious beliefs were seen as sources of division.
Despite the widespread perception of fragmentation, the survey shows significant support for democracy. Fewer than 30% of participants believe that a strong government with less democracy would be necessary to improve decision-making efficiency, and seven out of ten believe that freedom of expression must be fully preserved, even if it allows the spread of extreme opinions.
Following the presentation of the findings, experts such as Gonzalo Fanjul and Dr. Juan Abarca took part in discussions at UCJC on the challenges looking ahead to 2050, joined by professors, students and journalists. The Rector of Universidad Camilo José Cela, Jaime Olmedo, announced that new events will be held in 2026 to explore future challenges such as the space race, robotisation and cultural shifts related to concepts of happiness, love and reality.
Nieves Segovia, president of SEK Education Group, reminded attendees that “educational institutions were created to teach certainty, and now we find ourselves in the opposite scenario”—a challenge, she said, that requires rethinking the educational mission. Olmedo closed the event stressing that “the time has come for the obvious” and calling for a return to “Truth, Beauty and Goodness.”